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Stuttgart vs Union Berlin

Fri 11 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Stuttgart win: 51.0%

Draw: 24.1%

Union Berlin win: 24.9%

Predicted: Stuttgart

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 66.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.89

More corners: Stuttgart (61.0% home / 39.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Stuttgart

Yes

Probability Stuttgart wins or draws: 69.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Stuttgart Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 25%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Corners Stuttgart (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Stuttgart win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.