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Union Berlin vs Augsburg

Tue 02 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 24 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Union Berlin win: 41.8%

Draw: 28.9%

Augsburg win: 29.4%

Predicted: Union Berlin

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.1

More corners: Union Berlin (54.1% home / 45.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Augsburg

Yes

Probability Augsburg wins or draws: 58.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Union Berlin Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 29%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Augsburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.