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Union Berlin vs Leverkusen

Fri 29 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 19 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Union Berlin win: 36.4%

Draw: 29.3%

Leverkusen win: 34.3%

Predicted: Union Berlin

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 63.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.11

More corners: Leverkusen (44.8% home / 55.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leverkusen

Yes

Probability Leverkusen wins or draws: 64.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leverkusen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.