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Union Berlin vs Paderborn

Tue 12 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Union Berlin win: 50.8%

Draw: 26.5%

Paderborn win: 22.7%

Predicted: Union Berlin

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.19

More corners: Union Berlin (61.1% home / 38.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Union Berlin

Yes

Probability Union Berlin wins or draws: 72.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Union Berlin Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 26%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Union Berlin (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Union Berlin win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.