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Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg

Fri 09 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Union Berlin win: 47.0%

Draw: 19.2%

SV Elversberg win: 33.8%

Predicted: Union Berlin

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.63

More corners: Union Berlin (55.3% home / 44.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: SV Elversberg

Yes

Probability SV Elversberg wins or draws: 50.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Union Berlin Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 34%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat SV Elversberg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (50.0% model probability) Medium

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.