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Werder Bremen vs Augsburg

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Werder Bremen win: 38.4%

Draw: 27.7%

Augsburg win: 33.9%

Predicted: Werder Bremen

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.71

More corners: Augsburg (49.9% home / 50.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Augsburg

Yes

Probability Augsburg wins or draws: 63.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Augsburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.