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Werder Bremen vs Freiburg

Fri 22 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Werder Bremen win: 42.4%

Draw: 25.3%

Freiburg win: 32.4%

Predicted: Werder Bremen

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.45

More corners: Freiburg (48.2% home / 51.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 62.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Werder Bremen Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 32%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.