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Werder Bremen vs Paderborn

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 6 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Werder Bremen win: 48.8%

Draw: 23.5%

Paderborn win: 27.6%

Predicted: Werder Bremen

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.93

More corners: Werder Bremen (58.8% home / 41.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Werder Bremen

Yes

Probability Werder Bremen wins or draws: 67.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Werder Bremen Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 28%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Werder Bremen (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Werder Bremen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.