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Alaves vs Ath Madrid

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Alaves win: 26.9%

Draw: 29.4%

Ath Madrid win: 43.7%

Predicted: Ath Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 47.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.27

More corners: Alaves (55.3% home / 44.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Madrid

Yes

Probability Ath Madrid wins or draws: 66.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 29%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.