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Alaves vs Betis

Sat 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 31 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Alaves win: 30.3%

Draw: 30.4%

Betis win: 39.4%

Predicted: Betis

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.06

More corners: Betis (49.8% home / 50.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Betis

Yes

Probability Betis wins or draws: 65.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Betis Clearest lean of the available outcomes (39% vs next-best 30%). (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Betis win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.