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Alaves vs Elche

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Alaves win: 48.5%

Draw: 31.5%

Elche win: 20.0%

Predicted: Alaves

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 89.5%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.95

More corners: Alaves (53.6% home / 46.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Alaves

Yes

Probability Alaves wins or draws: 73.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Alaves Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 32%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (90.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Alaves win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.