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Alaves vs Málaga CF

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 10 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Alaves win: 36.1%

Draw: 39.2%

Málaga CF win: 24.7%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 94.6%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.25

More corners: Málaga CF (42.3% home / 57.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Málaga CF

Yes

Probability Málaga CF wins or draws: 67.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (95.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Málaga CF win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.