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Alaves vs Sociedad

Sat 09 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 19 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Alaves win: 37.1%

Draw: 30.7%

Sociedad win: 32.2%

Predicted: Alaves

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 80.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.44

More corners: Alaves (54.3% home / 45.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sociedad

Yes

Probability Sociedad wins or draws: 64.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (80.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sociedad win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.