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Alaves vs Vallecano

Sat 17 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 32 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Alaves win: 32.5%

Draw: 36.4%

Vallecano win: 31.1%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 81.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.52

More corners: Alaves (55.6% home / 44.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Vallecano

Yes

Probability Vallecano wins or draws: 63.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (82.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Vallecano win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.