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Ath Bilbao vs R. Racing Club

Sat 03 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Ath Bilbao win: 44.3%

Draw: 34.9%

R. Racing Club win: 20.8%

Predicted: Ath Bilbao

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 66.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 41.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.85

More corners: Ath Bilbao (53.1% home / 46.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Bilbao

Yes

Probability Ath Bilbao wins or draws: 72.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Bilbao Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 35%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (67.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Bilbao win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.