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Ath Bilbao vs Valencia

Sat 13 Mar 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ath Bilbao win: 43.2%

Draw: 31.5%

Valencia win: 25.3%

Predicted: Ath Bilbao

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.77

More corners: Ath Bilbao (55.9% home / 44.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Valencia

Yes

Probability Valencia wins or draws: 60.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Bilbao Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 32%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Valencia win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.