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Ath Bilbao vs Villarreal

Sat 09 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 19 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ath Bilbao win: 34.5%

Draw: 30.0%

Villarreal win: 35.6%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 28.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.16

More corners: Ath Bilbao (58.4% home / 41.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 62.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score No (72.0% model probability) High

Corners Ath Bilbao (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.