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Ath Madrid vs Osasuna

Tue 15 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 6 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ath Madrid win: 60.7%

Draw: 23.5%

Osasuna win: 15.8%

Predicted: Ath Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 78.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.02

More corners: Ath Madrid (54.7% home / 45.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Madrid

Yes

Probability Ath Madrid wins or draws: 76.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (61% vs next-best 24%). (61.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (78.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (76.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.