← Back to fixtures

Barcelona vs Sociedad

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Barcelona win: 61.0%

Draw: 21.9%

Sociedad win: 17.2%

Predicted: Barcelona

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 95.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.05

More corners: Barcelona (66.5% home / 33.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Barcelona

Yes

Probability Barcelona wins or draws: 75.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Barcelona Clearest lean of the available outcomes (61% vs next-best 22%). (61.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (96.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Barcelona (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Barcelona win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (76.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.