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Barcelona vs Villarreal

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Barcelona win: 55.4%

Draw: 23.6%

Villarreal win: 21.0%

Predicted: Barcelona

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 43.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.69

More corners: Barcelona (64.3% home / 35.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Barcelona

Yes

Probability Barcelona wins or draws: 68.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Barcelona Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 24%). (55.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score No (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Barcelona (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Barcelona win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.