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Betis vs Alaves

Sat 02 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Betis win: 56.9%

Draw: 26.7%

Alaves win: 16.4%

Predicted: Betis

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 85.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Betis (59.6% home / 40.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Betis

Yes

Probability Betis wins or draws: 80.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Betis Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 27%). (57.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (86.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Betis (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Betis win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (80.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.