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Betis vs Vallecano

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Betis win: 48.2%

Draw: 32.2%

Vallecano win: 19.5%

Predicted: Betis

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 93.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Betis (54.5% home / 45.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Betis

Yes

Probability Betis wins or draws: 73.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Betis Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 32%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (94.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Betis win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.