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Celta vs Getafe

Sat 30 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Celta win: 46.7%

Draw: 35.6%

Getafe win: 17.8%

Predicted: Celta

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 12.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 41.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.37

More corners: Getafe (47.3% home / 52.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Celta

Yes

Probability Celta wins or draws: 73.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Celta Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 36%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score No (87.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Celta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.