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Celta vs Sevilla

Sat 01 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Celta win: 42.1%

Draw: 34.6%

Sevilla win: 23.3%

Predicted: Celta

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 93.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 42.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.36

More corners: Sevilla (45.9% home / 54.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Celta

Yes

Probability Celta wins or draws: 75.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (94.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Celta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (76.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.