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Celta vs Vallecano

Sat 13 Feb 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 24 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Celta win: 41.2%

Draw: 34.2%

Vallecano win: 24.6%

Predicted: Celta

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 91.5%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.51

More corners: Celta (50.9% home / 49.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Celta

Yes

Probability Celta wins or draws: 69.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (92.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Celta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.