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Celta vs Villarreal

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Celta win: 31.9%

Draw: 28.8%

Villarreal win: 39.3%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.14

More corners: Villarreal (47.2% home / 52.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 66.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.