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Elche vs Alaves

Sat 03 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Elche win: 37.5%

Draw: 38.7%

Alaves win: 23.8%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 89.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.29

More corners: Alaves (47.0% home / 53.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Alaves

Yes

Probability Alaves wins or draws: 57.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (90.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Alaves win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (57.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.