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Elche vs Sevilla

Sat 12 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Elche win: 32.3%

Draw: 41.8%

Sevilla win: 26.0%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 38.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.95

More corners: Sevilla (46.0% home / 54.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sevilla

Yes

Probability Sevilla wins or draws: 67.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Draw Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 32%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sevilla win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.