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Elche vs Sociedad

Sat 05 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Elche win: 35.8%

Draw: 33.2%

Sociedad win: 31.0%

Predicted: Elche

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 83.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.51

More corners: Sociedad (46.7% home / 53.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sociedad

Yes

Probability Sociedad wins or draws: 63.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (84.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sociedad win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.