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Espanol vs Alaves

Sat 29 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 38 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Espanol win: 43.0%

Draw: 33.3%

Alaves win: 23.6%

Predicted: Espanol

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 82.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.63

More corners: Espanol (56.3% home / 43.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Alaves

Yes

Probability Alaves wins or draws: 60.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Espanol Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 33%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (83.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Alaves win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.