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Espanol vs Elche

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Espanol win: 48.7%

Draw: 32.0%

Elche win: 19.3%

Predicted: Espanol

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 99.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.09

More corners: Espanol (56.7% home / 43.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Espanol

Yes

Probability Espanol wins or draws: 70.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Espanol Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 32%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (99.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Espanol win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.