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Espanol vs Villarreal

Sat 23 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 21 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Espanol win: 31.2%

Draw: 28.9%

Villarreal win: 40.0%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 81.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.25

More corners: Espanol (55.6% home / 44.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 67.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Villarreal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 31%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (82.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.