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Getafe vs Alaves

Sat 27 Feb 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Getafe win: 39.6%

Draw: 34.7%

Alaves win: 25.8%

Predicted: Getafe

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 83.5%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 39.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.81

More corners: Alaves (46.7% home / 53.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Getafe

Yes

Probability Getafe wins or draws: 69.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (84.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Getafe win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.