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Getafe vs Espanol

Sat 03 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Getafe win: 42.6%

Draw: 33.6%

Espanol win: 23.8%

Predicted: Getafe

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.21

More corners: Espanol (48.3% home / 51.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Getafe

Yes

Probability Getafe wins or draws: 72.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Getafe Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 34%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Getafe win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.