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Getafe vs Sociedad

Sat 13 Mar 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Getafe win: 40.4%

Draw: 29.1%

Sociedad win: 30.6%

Predicted: Getafe

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 88.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.75

More corners: Sociedad (46.2% home / 53.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sociedad

Yes

Probability Sociedad wins or draws: 61.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Getafe Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 31%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (89.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sociedad win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.