← Back to fixtures

Getafe vs Villarreal

Sat 06 Feb 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Getafe win: 30.6%

Draw: 30.8%

Villarreal win: 38.7%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 23.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.53

More corners: Villarreal (45.4% home / 54.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 59.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score No (76.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.