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Osasuna vs Alaves

Tue 20 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 33 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Osasuna win: 40.1%

Draw: 37.0%

Alaves win: 22.9%

Predicted: Osasuna

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 85.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 45.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.74

More corners: Osasuna (62.4% home / 37.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Osasuna

Yes

Probability Osasuna wins or draws: 66.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (85.0% model probability) High

Corners Osasuna (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Osasuna win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.