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Osasuna vs Ath Madrid

Sat 13 Feb 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 24 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Osasuna win: 26.7%

Draw: 31.3%

Ath Madrid win: 42.0%

Predicted: Ath Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.5

More corners: Osasuna (58.1% home / 41.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Madrid

Yes

Probability Ath Madrid wins or draws: 67.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 31%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Osasuna (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.