← Back to fixtures

Osasuna vs Real Madrid

Sat 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 31 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Osasuna win: 18.7%

Draw: 31.1%

Real Madrid win: 50.3%

Predicted: Real Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 51.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.91

More corners: Real Madrid (48.3% home / 51.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Real Madrid

Yes

Probability Real Madrid wins or draws: 77.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Real Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 31%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Real Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.