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Osasuna vs Vallecano

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Osasuna win: 33.2%

Draw: 41.3%

Vallecano win: 25.5%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 86.1%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 45.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.84

More corners: Osasuna (59.2% home / 40.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Vallecano

Yes

Probability Vallecano wins or draws: 65.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Draw Clearest lean of the available outcomes (41% vs next-best 33%). (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (86.0% model probability) High

Corners Osasuna (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Vallecano win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.