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R. Racing Club vs Ath Bilbao

Sat 02 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

R. Racing Club win: 28.7%

Draw: 33.9%

Ath Bilbao win: 37.4%

Predicted: Ath Bilbao

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 14.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 41.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.34

More corners: Ath Bilbao (46.6% home / 53.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Bilbao

Yes

Probability Ath Bilbao wins or draws: 66.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score No (86.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Bilbao win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.