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Real Madrid vs Alaves

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Real Madrid win: 65.8%

Draw: 20.9%

Alaves win: 13.3%

Predicted: Real Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 73.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.44

More corners: Real Madrid (66.4% home / 33.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Real Madrid

Yes

Probability Real Madrid wins or draws: 84.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Real Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (66% vs next-best 21%). (66.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (74.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Real Madrid (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Real Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (84.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.