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Real Madrid vs Osasuna

Sat 12 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Real Madrid win: 64.6%

Draw: 21.6%

Osasuna win: 13.7%

Predicted: Real Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 39.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.67

More corners: Real Madrid (59.8% home / 40.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Real Madrid

Yes

Probability Real Madrid wins or draws: 80.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Real Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (65% vs next-best 22%). (65.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score No (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Real Madrid (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Real Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (80.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.