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Sevilla vs Alaves

Sat 07 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sevilla win: 39.6%

Draw: 36.2%

Alaves win: 24.2%

Predicted: Sevilla

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 87.6%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 40.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.79

More corners: Sevilla (61.3% home / 38.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Alaves

Yes

Probability Alaves wins or draws: 56.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (88.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Sevilla (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Alaves win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (56.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.