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Sevilla vs Elche

Sat 20 Mar 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 29 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sevilla win: 46.1%

Draw: 33.5%

Elche win: 20.3%

Predicted: Sevilla

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 88.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 42.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.7

More corners: Sevilla (61.8% home / 38.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sevilla

Yes

Probability Sevilla wins or draws: 65.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sevilla Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 34%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (89.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Sevilla (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sevilla win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.