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Sevilla vs Málaga CF

Sat 05 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Sevilla win: 36.3%

Draw: 39.0%

Málaga CF win: 24.7%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 79.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 40.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.57

More corners: Málaga CF (48.9% home / 51.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Málaga CF

Yes

Probability Málaga CF wins or draws: 68.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (80.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Málaga CF win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.