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Sevilla vs Osasuna

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 10 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sevilla win: 40.6%

Draw: 34.9%

Osasuna win: 24.5%

Predicted: Sevilla

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.1%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.24

More corners: Sevilla (54.6% home / 45.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Osasuna

Yes

Probability Osasuna wins or draws: 56.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Osasuna win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (56.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.