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Sevilla vs Valencia

Sat 12 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sevilla win: 37.0%

Draw: 32.1%

Valencia win: 30.9%

Predicted: Sevilla

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 88.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.9

More corners: Sevilla (57.2% home / 42.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Valencia

Yes

Probability Valencia wins or draws: 60.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (88.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Valencia win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.