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Sevilla vs Vallecano

Sat 15 Aug 2026, 09:30 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sevilla win: 31.8%

Draw: 39.6%

Vallecano win: 28.6%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 82.5%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 42.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.05

More corners: Sevilla (59.4% home / 40.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Vallecano

Yes

Probability Vallecano wins or draws: 62.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (82.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Sevilla (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Vallecano win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.