← Back to fixtures

Sevilla vs Villarreal

Sat 15 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 36 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sevilla win: 30.4%

Draw: 31.1%

Villarreal win: 38.5%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 25.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.37

More corners: Sevilla (57.9% home / 42.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 64.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score No (75.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.